India's Air Travel Market Faces Cooling Demand
India’s once-soaring domestic aviation sector is showing signs of slowing down after an impressive recovery from the pandemic. Data from the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) indicates that domestic air passenger traffic declined for three consecutive months through September 2025 — the first prolonged downturn since 2022.
From Rebound to Stabilization
Following two years of strong growth after the Covid-19 slump, the market appears to be entering a phase of consolidation. Monthly expansion that previously reached double or even triple digits has diminished to single digits, and in recent months, turned negative.
“Domestic passenger traffic growth slowed from 8.5% in April 2025 to just 1.9% in May, and then fell into negative territory in July (-2.9%), August (-1.4%), and September (-2.9%).”
Industry Outlook Remains Positive
Despite the slowdown, the aviation industry remains stronger than before the pandemic. Analysis of DGCA data by Mint reveals that passenger volumes in 2025 still exceed 2019 levels. This suggests a market that is normalizing rather than contracting, maintaining a higher base of demand.
Key Observations
- Three-month consecutive decline marks first sustained dip since 2022.
- Growth turned negative starting mid-2025 after months of deceleration.
- Passenger volumes remain higher than pre-pandemic benchmarks.
- Market likely stabilizing instead of entering full reversal.
Author’s Summary: India’s domestic air travel market is losing momentum after rapid post-pandemic growth, signaling stabilization at a higher base rather than a fall in demand.
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