Food Insecurity and Grocery Price Increases
Statistical analysis helps reveal the depth of grocery price increases, especially since the pandemic began. One of the most noticeable elements of post-pandemic inflation has been the rise in costs classified by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index (CPI) as "food at home," which refers to groceries.
Unique Characteristics of Groceries
- Groceries satisfy a basic need; except for those who always eat out or live in institutions, most people rely on them.
- There is a wide variety of substitution options available, such as choosing cheaper cuts of meat, switching from brand names to store labels, or replacing organic with regular products.
Unlike housing or utilities, groceries are essential but offer multiple price levels and choices.
Insights from Government Data
The Department of Agriculture tracks grocery costs monthly by publishing prices in four spending quartiles for various grocery market baskets, offering a detailed perspective on cost variations over time.
Reviewing grocery price trends over the past decade reveals that prices were mostly stable from 2015 to 2020, then sharply rose in 2021 and 2022. However, when adjusting for inflation, grocery prices have remained relatively steady since 2023.
In the last 10 years, the most affordable quartile of groceries has seen prices increase by 55.8% without adjusting for inflation.
Author's Summary
Grocery prices surged significantly after 2020 but have stabilized recently when inflation is considered, highlighting ongoing challenges in food affordability despite available choices.
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